Will renewable energy contribute 25% or less to global electricity production in 2030?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). According the (IPCC, 2018):

P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.

According to the (IPCC, 2018), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.

In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to World Bank data.