Longbets series: By 2029, will a computer have passed the Turing Test?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
62%
Likely
Yes

Question description

Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet here.

Will an AI pass the Turing test outlined in Kurzweil and Kapor's bet by the end of 2029?

This question will resolve as Yes if the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of this bet. If Mitchell Kapor wins, then this question will resolve as No.

Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.

Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.

Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.

During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).

The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online "instant messaging" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.

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★★★☆☆
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Number of forecasts798

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62%
Likely

Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet here.

Will an AI pass the Turing test outlined in Kurzweil and Kapor's bet by the end of 2029?

This question will resolve as Yes if the Long Now Foundation...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 798

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