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Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
77%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

An oracle (Wikipedia, Lesswrongwiki) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a general AI, and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts349

Capture #

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Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
77%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

An oracle (Wikipedia, Lesswrongwiki) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a general AI, and it may help to solve the safety...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 349

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