When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
Question description
Intelligence quotient (IQ) is a measure of relative intelligence. Mensa International is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.
An artificial intelligence (AI) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question is about 47, achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 257 |
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Intelligence quotient (IQ) is a measure of relative intelligence. Mensa International is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is...
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