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Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
32%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

WikiLeaks is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted "insurance files".

There has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:

We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”

However, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a "dead man's switch" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts142

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

WikiLeaks is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted "insurance files".

There has been much speculation about the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 142

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