Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing Nexit, Frexit and Quitaly.

Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the 6 original founders of the ECSC leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1726

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1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing Nexit, Frexit and Quitaly.

Some commentators argue that Brexit is...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1726

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