Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
8%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

Trinity was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted world wide.

The US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name Divder, took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush declared a moratorium on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has not yet entered into force.

The decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the core missions of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to "ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing." This is largely accomplished through super computers. However, some argue that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.

More recently, there have been reports that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.

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8%
Very unlikely

Trinity) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted world wide.

The US has conducted...

Last updated: 2024-02-23
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 296

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