Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

Metaculus
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36%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a "cost per life saved" metric to compare them on.

While they warn against taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally, these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.

GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis.

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts149

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GiveWell is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 149

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