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Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Per this tweet, Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1276

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Per this tweet, Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1276

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