Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

Per this tweet, Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1232

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Resizable preview:
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Per this tweet, Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1232

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