Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
5%
Very unlikely
Yes

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Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast (see this question). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: 59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House.

Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.

Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1341

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5%
Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?
  • Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?

Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1341

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