Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
61%
Likely
Yes

Question description

As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?

Automakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, Volkswagen is spending billions in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's.

For some additional context, here is the IEA Historical EV Market Share and Outlook.

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PlatformMetaculus
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61%
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As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market...

Last updated: 2024-02-23
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 236

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