Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
13%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found here.

Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available here. More discussion is available here.

This question asks:

Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?

This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:

  • That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.

And:

  • That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.

The NHS already recommends Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:

There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.

[fine-print] The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total global daily deaths from coronavirus are below 250. [/fine-print]

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts256

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13%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 256

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