Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
15%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found here.

Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available here. More discussion is available here.

This question asks:

Will the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?

This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:

  • That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.

And:

  • That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.

In the their treatment recommendations, a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:

At present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19

[fine-print] The question resolves according to the reccomendations in the recommendations overview, developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.

The consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators.

The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total global daily deaths from coronavirus are below 250. [/fine-print]

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts116

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15%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116

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