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Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.

We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states "judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts305

Capture #

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Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 305

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