When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?

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US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing 3% from 2018-2019 and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level.

Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over 17 million in 2019. In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to Car Sales Base.

Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take 30% of the market share by 2025, and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.

When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?

Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on total car sales and total EV sales, which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the Federal Reserve and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.

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US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing 3% from 2018-2019 and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV...

Last updated: 2023-01-29
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Metaculus
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