Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
54%
About Even
Yes

Question description

From Wikipedia,

Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was "the most secure in American history." Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was "no evidence of widespread fraud" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts618

Capture

Resizable preview:
54%
About Even

From Wikipedia,

Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote...

Last updated: 2024-05-05
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 618

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-5882" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />