Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
30%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.

As of 2020, 44 individuals have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male.

Throughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties.

The Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: Geraldine Ferraro in the 1984 presidential election and Kamala Harris in the 2020 presidential election. As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021.

The Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: Sarah Palin in the 2008 presidential election.

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

For a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.

[fine-print] If there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. [/fine-print]

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts194

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Resizable preview:
30%
Unlikely

The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 194

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