Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
17%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their recommendations at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in "Evaluation Charities", the evaluation criteria are described in "Evaluation Criteria".

As of November 2020, the Good Food Fund, which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below "Top Charity".

Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?

By "primarily operating in China" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, ProVeg International works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution.

The question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in ACE's recommendations

[fine-print] This question belongs to the Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. [/fine-print]

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts172

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Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 172

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