Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
Question description
Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with a person of the year, ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.
Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 218 |
Capture
Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with a person of the year, ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.
Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in...
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