How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

Related Question on Metaculus:

• Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

As of September 2020, the Federation of Atomic Scientists estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.

Some activists, such as the Global Zero campaign, wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a strategy of deterrence.