Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.

On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts168

Capture

Resizable preview:
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 168

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-6108" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />