When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Metaculus
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Question description

A number of companies are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States.

Two previous binary questions (for 2017 and 2021) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.

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PlatformMetaculus
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A number of companies are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States.

Two previous binary questions (for 2017 and 2021) have asked when flying cars...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 230

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