Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Although large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party, electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since 1848.

The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

This prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts226

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20%
Unlikely

Although large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party, electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a...

Last updated: 2023-01-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 226

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