Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

<small>Related question: Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?</small>

The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.

Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.

Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?

This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.

[fine-print] "Senator" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.

The question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. [/fine-print]

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2%
Exceptionally unlikely

<small>Related question: Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?</small>

The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188

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