Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
59%
About Even
Yes

Question description

Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of the Electoral College. A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be selected by Congress if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.

The 2020 election ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the January 6 storming of the Capitol. Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the COVID-19 pandemic and an unemployment rate of 6.7%, with a narrow majority in Congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a historically high disapproval rating of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and highly competitive elections. On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1159

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59%
About Even

Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of the Electoral College. A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be selected by Congress if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes..

Last updated: 2023-10-03
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1159

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