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Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
18%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome'>Kessler syndrome</a> is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.

As of 2018, we are losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the US require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts901

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Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome'>Kessler syndrome</a> is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.

As of 2018,...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 901

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