Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
18%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have already exploded.

The "Boom Star" as Molner calls it:

will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.

Molner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.

*** Will this bold prediction come to pass? ***

Result is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an "red nova" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)

(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.

Indicators

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts171

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Resizable preview:
18%
Unlikely

Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have already exploded.

The "Boom Star" as Molner calls it:

will be visible...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 171

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