Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?
Question description
Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have already exploded.
The "Boom Star" as Molner calls it:
will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.
Molner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.
*** Will this bold prediction come to pass? ***
Result is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an "red nova" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)
(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 171 |
Capture
Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have already exploded.
The "Boom Star" as Molner calls it:
will be visible...
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