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Recent controversy over state election laws has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator recently suggested:
"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there’s a very good chance the victory isn’t certified"
Election certification is the process in which states confirm the election results and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a "safe harbor" deadline by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The "safe harbor" deadline is set by 3 U.S. Code § 5 and 3 U.S. Code § 7 which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 351 |
Recent controversy over state election laws has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator recently suggested:
"If a...