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Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account maxwellhill belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls.

u/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million "karma" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.

The conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence:

  • Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username
  • maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged
  • maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday.
  • Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020.

However, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill after Maxwell's arrest.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts520

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account maxwellhill belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls....

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 520

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