Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?
Question description
Global trade has increased from 27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008. This has brought benefits such as poverty alleviation and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as suppression of wages. As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.
Possibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.
The past few years however have witnessed the signing of the RCEP and CPTPP trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 110 |
Capture
Global trade has increased from 27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008. This has brought benefits such as poverty alleviation and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as...
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