If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?

Related Questions on Metaculus:

• Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?
• If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?

Puerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit Puerto Rico as a US state, though there has been much disagreement among Puerto Ricans among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.

In a related debate on statehood for the District of Columbia, the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:

“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”

Expecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is almost certain, but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:

We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.

The Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.

Several referendums have been held on PR's future political status; in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.