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Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
21%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

SpaceX has released plans for an "Interplanetary Transport System" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.

In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.

In another question here it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts2451

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

SpaceX has released plans for an "Interplanetary Transport System" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.

In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 2451

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