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Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
28%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. As of May 2021, the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350).

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts144

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Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. As of May 2021, the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 144

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