Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

★★★☆☆

4%

Very unlikely

Yes

Question description #

Indicators #

Indicator	Value
Stars	★★★☆☆
Platform	Metaculus
Number of forecasts	144

Capture #

Resizable preview:

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

4%

Very unlikely

Last updated: 2024-07-08

Last updated: 2024-07-08

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 144

Embed #

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-7406" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />