Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

★★★☆☆

80%

Likely

Yes

Question description #

Indicators #

Indicator	Value
Stars	★★★☆☆
Platform	Metaculus
Number of forecasts	120

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Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

80%

Likely

Last updated: 2024-07-08

Last updated: 2024-07-08

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 120

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