How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆

Question description

Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to the Federation of American Scientists).

  • Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads

  • US: 5,550 nuclear warheads

  • China: 350 nuclear warheads

  • France: 290 nuclear warheads

  • UK: 225 nuclear warheads

  • Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads

  • India: 160 nuclear warheads

  • Israel: 90 nuclear warheads

  • North Korea: Estimated 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads ("The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower.")

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts340

Capture

Resizable preview:

Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to the Federation of American Scientists).

  • Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads

  • US: 5,550...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 340

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-7457" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />