When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Metaculus
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Question description

Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these measures will be in preventing another crisis or mitigating its effects once one takes place.

For the purposes of this question, a "great financial crisis" is defined by reference to the weekly Financial Stress Index of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The index is constructed by extracting the component of principal variation from 18 different indicators of the state of financial markets using principal component analysis and is designed to serve as an overall measure of stress in financial markets. A "great financial crisis" is a crisis that's comparable to the crisis of 2008 by this metric.

When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

The question resolves to the Friday of the earliest week after the opening date of the question for which the latest version of the Financial Stress Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (which is currently SLTFSI2 but might change in the future if further revisions are made to the index by the St. Louis Fed) exceeds its value for the week ending on October 3rd 2008. This value is currently 7.0144, but may be updated if FRED updates the index. If this event doesn't occur until the closing date of the question. the question resolves as >2100. If the index is discontinued altogether, the question resolves ambiguously.

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Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these...

Last updated: 2023-01-29
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 154

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