MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
62%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

One of Paul Erdős' favorite problems was the sunflower conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof.

The sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size (n) are necessary before there are some (3) whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was improved in 2019 to something the form ( \log(n)^{n(1+o(1))} ); see here for the original paper and here for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound (c^n) for some constant (c).

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts80

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

One of Paul Erdős' favorite problems was the sunflower) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof.

The sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size (n) are necessary before there are some (3) whose...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 80

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-7549" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview