Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?

As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification.

The "Pan-Blue" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent "Pan-Green" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. The next presidential election will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.