Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
45%
About Even
Yes

Question description

The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack during the Syrian Civil War was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.

The fact-checking website Rootclaim's analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim offered a 100,000 dollar challenge on this topic.

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts116

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45%
About Even

The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack during the Syrian Civil War was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 116

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