Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?
Question description
The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack during the Syrian Civil War was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.
The fact-checking website Rootclaim's analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim offered a 100,000 dollar challenge on this topic.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 83 |
Capture
The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack during the Syrian Civil War was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of...
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