Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?

Metaculus
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30%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.

Egypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.

There have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:

Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?

A clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:

  • A bombing attack on the dam
  • Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam

Success of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out.

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Unlikely

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.

Egypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 91

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