Related Questions on Metaculus:

• Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?
• Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

There is a large variation in the median age of countries. Some have suggested that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the Sri Lankan Civil War ended. Younger populations are associated with an increased risk of civil war.