If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
57%About Even
Yes

Question description

This question asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050. Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan? If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations? This question resolves positively if (i) This question resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count. 'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question. Military support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date this question resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the other question resolves.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts115

Capture

57%About Even

This question asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050. Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK,...

Last updated: 2022-05-22
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 115