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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
75%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.

In Toby Ord's recent book The Precipice he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this century at 10%.

This question asks if we will see large scale incidents leading to loss of life or damage as a result of AI developments going wrong in the next ten years.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts312

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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
75%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.

In Toby Ord's recent book The Precipice he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 312

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