Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

In the 2020 US Presidential election, major news desks called the election for Joe Biden in the week following the November election. Despite this, a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result, such that betting markets still placed nontrivial probabilities on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.

This question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts110

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Resizable preview:
3%
Very unlikely

In the 2020 US Presidential election, major news desks called the election for Joe Biden in the week following the November election. Despite this, a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result, such that...

Last updated: 2024-04-26
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 110

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