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In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election to count the votes of the electoral college.

If there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.

In 2021, the returns from Arizona and Pennsylvania were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.

This question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts99

Capture #

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In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election to count the votes of the electoral college.

If there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 99

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