Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?

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Yes

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The United States Census takes a census every 10 years. In the most recent census in 2020, the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to some developed nations whose populations are declining, though population growth in the United States has slowed and the 7.4% is one of the lowest-ever decade-on-decade growth rates ever recorded. Recently, US fertility has hit record lows though it is still not as low as countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and South Korea. Immigration to the United States is a significant source of population growth, especially in contrast with countries like Japan.

Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?

This question will resolve as Yes if a Census conducted before 2071 shows a drop in US population over the previous Census, according to official statistics from the United States Census Bureau. If the Census Bureau changes its name or merges into another entity, those statistics will be used instead.

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About Even

The United States Census takes a census every 10 years. In the most recent census in 2020, the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to some developed nations whose populations are declining, though population growth...

Last updated: 2022-10-01
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 80

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