Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
78%
Likely
Yes

Question description

Jsevillamol suggests using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.

Metaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.

This question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts20

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78%
Likely

Jsevillamol suggests using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.

Metaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 20

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