Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?

Metaculus
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Virtually certain
Yes

Question description

This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. <br><br><br> The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUUR0000SA0L1E).

If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.

Will the core CPI rise by more than 3% between December 2021 and December 2022?

This resolves according to data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series CUUR0000SA0L1E).

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*This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
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Metaculus
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