Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Metaculus
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51%
About Even
Yes

Question description

Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term. But he faces a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region, which is battering his economy and leading to increasing international pressure.

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

A "significant leadership disruption" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:

  • resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),
  • lost a confidence vote,
  • lost an election,
  • formally left office,
  • died,
  • been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
  • fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
  • been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days,
  • been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days.

Resolution will be according to reliable published reports.

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts228

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51%
About Even

Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term. But he faces a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region, which is battering...

Last updated: 2022-11-17
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 228

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