Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
75%Likely
Yes

Question description

Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term. But he faces a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region, which is battering his economy and leading to increasing international pressure. Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? A "significant leadership disruption" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has: resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date), lost a confidence vote, lost an election, formally left office, died, been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days, fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days, been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days, been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days. Resolution will be according to reliable published reports.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts179

Capture

75%Likely

Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term. But he faces a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region, which is battering...

Last updated: 2022-05-22
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 179