Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term. But he faces a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region, which is battering his economy and leading to increasing international pressure.

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

A "significant leadership disruption" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:

• resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),
• lost a confidence vote,
• lost an election,
• formally left office,
• died,
• been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
• fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
• been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days,
• been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days.

Resolution will be according to reliable published reports.